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China’’s military seems to have a new attitude: lots of chutzpah
By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, January 7, 2011; 7:15 PM
解放军翻脸，态度相当嚣张！
华盛顿邮报特约撰稿人 John Pomfret
2011年1月7日 周五
When Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates arrives in China on Sunday, he will discover a Chinese military that has significantly changed in the three and a half years since he last visited Beijing.
It’’s not so much that the People’’s Liberation Army has achieved stunning successes since Gates met with its officers in 2007 - although, despite significant problems, the military’’s modernization has continued apace.
More than anything, the PLA has taken on a different tone. Emboldened by the notion that China’’s rise is unstoppable, its military has shed its traditional secrecy to become a brash, even boisterous interest group that openly advocates for policies, brandishes its new equipment and makes other claims like never before.
"Over the years, the Chinese military doctrine was ’’hide and bide’’ - hide your resources and bide your time," Vice Adm. David J. "Jack" Dorsett, director of naval intelligence, told reporters earlier this week. "They now appear to have shifted into an era where they’’re willing to show their resources and capabilities."
But in other ways Gates could find the PLA very much like he left it - unsure of whether it wants a better relationship with the United States. That would put Washington in the uncomfortable position of being a not-so-welcome suitor of China’’s men in green.
周日访华的美国国防部长罗伯特.M.盖茨将发现，和他三年半前到访北京时不同，中国军队一反常态。
自2007年盖茨与其高官会面以来，解放军并未取得什么了不起的成就，尽管存在一些重大问题，军队现代化却发展迅猛。
不仅如此，解放军的口气也今非昔比。在中国崛起不可阻遏的信念鼓舞下，军队已经卸下长期以来的神秘色彩，变得肆无忌惮。甚至，有些狂热的利益集团也在公开鼓吹政策，炫耀新装备，并提出迥乎既往的其他主张。
“很多年来，中国军队的指导思想一直是藏和等——韬光养晦，以待来日，”海军情报负责人、副司令David J. "Jack" Dorsett在本周初对记者说，“他们现在似乎已进入愿意展示谋略和能力的阶段了。”
但另一方面，盖茨也会发现，解放军和他（三年半前）离开时并无不同——难以确信自己到底是否应该和美国保持良性关系。这让华盛顿进退失据，像一个不受欢迎的青涩追求者。
Despite years of American pleas that closer military coordination is needed to avoid the miscalculations that could lead to war, senior Chinese officers have said military ties with Washington will never be normal unless, among other steps, the United States stops selling weapons to Taiwan and halts its surveillance activities near China’’s coast.
"The one big question is why are the talks happening now?" asked David Finkelstein, a former official with the Defense Intelligence Agency and now the director of the China program at the think-tank CNA.
Finkelstein speculated that perhaps the PLA has been forced to make nice ahead of a Jan. 18 state visit by President Hu Jintao to Washington. Or, he said, "perhaps even the PLA now realizes that no relations with the U.S. military is a bad thing."
Regardless, he said, at a time when China’’s military increasingly rubs up against its American counterpart, "just talking is important enough."
The PLA suspended ties with the United States last January when the Obama administration announced a $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan; it rejected Gates’’s attempt to visit China last June.
尽管美国此前多年一直吁求，必须以更密切的军事合作来避免可能导致战争的擦枪走火。中国高层官员则称，除非美国停止对台售武，停止对中国沿海的侦查，否则，中方和华盛顿的军事关系永远都不可能正常化。
“问题是为什么现在开始对话？”前国防情报处官员、现任海军“智库”——情报分析中心中国项目负责人David Finkelstein如此发问。
Finkelstein推测称，也许解放军此举是为1月18日胡*锦*涛主席访美做好铺垫，或者，他说，“也许解放军现在认识到，和美军不相往来实属不智。”
无论如何，他认为，在中国军方和美军摩擦日益增多的当下，“对话至关重要。”
去年1月，在奥巴马总统宣布了一项64亿美元的对台售武大单后，解放军暂停了和美军的接触。去年6月，他们拒绝了盖茨的访问请求。
But over the summer, ties were resuscitated. And in December, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michile Flournoy held talks in Washington with Gen. Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of the PLA’’s general staff.
Flournoy told reporters that she found those talks "enlightening" because Ma engaged in some discussion and did not read to her from talking points like many Chinese generals do. She said the Chinese were given briefings on U.S. nuclear, space and ballistic missile defense policies "that we gave our closest allies" - part of a broader U.S. strategy of trying to win over the PLA by making the first move.
Flournoy said the Pentagon made the decision to be so transparent with China because Washington hopes that China will do the same.
Instead, China appears to be providing the United States with a different kind of transparency.
In the week running up to Gates’’s three-day trip, tightly censored Internet sites in China published photos of an apparent prototype of a stealth fighter doing a runway test in the city of Chengdu.
Weeks before that, Chinese military sources leaked the news that they are almost finished refitting a Soviet-era aircraft carrier; in November news reports in Moscow said China was interested in buying Russian-made fighter jets that can operate off such carriers.
In addition, over the past year, uniformed Chinese officers have started appearing on Chinese state-run television programs, making tough statements about Chinese foreign policy - much to the chagrin of China’’s professional diplomats. PLA officers, for example, led the charge against the deployment of the USS George Washington to the Yellow Sea in November. And representatives of Chinese defense industries made bold claims about China’’s manufacturing prowess during an airshow in November.
但夏天结束后，两军关系解冻。12月，国防部副部长Michile Flournoy在华盛顿主持了和解放军副总参谋长马晓天将军的会谈。
Flournoy对记者说，她发现对话很有建设性，因为马参与了一些讨论，并不像其他将军那样只是围绕会谈要点照本宣科。她说美方向中方简要通报了核武、太空和弹道导弹防卫政策，“以往这只向亲密盟友提供”——这只是试图赢得解放军（信任）的初步行动。
Flournoy表示，五角大楼的这些决定对中国足够透明，以图换取中方投桃报李。
但中国向美国提供（信息）的透明方式有所不同。
在接近盖茨3天访问行程的这一周，中国一向审查严格的互联网上出现了一架隐形战机样机在成都进行滑跑试验的清晰照片。
数周前，中国军方透露了已对一艘苏联时期航母完成修复的消息。11月，来自莫斯科的消息称中国有意购买俄制航母舰载战机。
另外，去年身着军服的官员在中国国家电视台的节目中露面，发出关于中国外交政策的强硬声明——更像是针对中国职业外交官（遭遇）的挫败而发声。例如，解放军官员（在节目中）指责美国11月在黄海部署航母。又如，来自中国国防工业的代表在11月的一次航展上声称对该国制造业神乎其技信心百倍。
The newfound chutzpah is in some ways justified. China’’s military has advanced considerably over the past decade.
Last month, Adm. Robert Willard, the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told a Japanese reporter that China had begun the initial deployment of what could be a carrier-killing anti-ship ballistic missile.
On Jan. 3, Dorsett added to that, telling Bloomberg News that China has patched together a space- and ground-based system that could help the missile, the DF-21D, find its target.
However, analysts have noted the challenges to creating a missile that could actually find an aircraft carrier are huge. The Soviet Union tried it for decades and failed. And, Dorsett noted, China’’s missile has yet to undergo a full-scale flight test."
In other ways, the PLA’’s triumphalism seems like pure salesmanship. At the Zhuhai Airshow in November, senior Chinese defense industry officials made claims that China can now manufacture engines for its jet fighters. But there’’s no sign that’’s really the case and, indeed, the firm that makes the engines, the Aviation Industries of China, canceled two press conferences on that topic.
从某些方面来说，中国军方的嚣张不无道理。过去十年里，中国军队进步相当大。上个月，美军太平洋司令Robert Willard告诉日本记者，中国开始初步部署可能成为“航母杀手”的反舰弹道导弹。
1月3日， Dorsett告诉隆伯格新闻，中国已经组装了一套空基-地基系统，以帮助东风-21D型导弹找到目标。
但是。分析人士指出，制造出能准确定位航母的导弹是个巨大的挑战，前苏联努力了数十年终告失败。Dorsett认为，中国的导弹尚需接受“全面的飞行测试”。
在其他层面，解放军的大张旗鼓看起来纯粹出于销售目的。在11月的珠海航展上，中国国防工业的高级官员声称中国现在能自行制造战机发动机，但没有证据显示此言属实。实际上，该发动机的制造商——中航工业曾两次取消关于战机发动机的新闻发布会。
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