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<!--QuoteBegin-yellowbee+17.01.2007, 13:11 --><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(yellowbee @ 17.01.2007, 13:11 )</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin-->“高估”或者“低估”是指两种货币在各自地区购买力的比例和他们汇率的相对关系, 曾经有人做过一个“麦当劳的巨无霸在各国价格”的调查, 根据在不同国家巨无霸的价格来比较货币的汇率是否被“高估(überbewertet)”或者“低估(unterbewertet)”。<br /><br />举个简单例子: 巨无霸在中国卖10元人民币, 在德国卖2,5欧元, 他们购买力的比例就是4:1, 而汇率是10:1, 也就是说根据汇率在中国巨无霸照理该卖25元, 但是现在卖10元, 也就是人民币的购买力被低估。<br />[right][snapback]1221272[/snapback][/right]<br /><!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--><br />不是“曾经有人...”,而是英国杂志<The Economist> 1986年9月发明,每年公布一次所谓的"Big Mac index"。但BMI并不是一个正式的经济指数,仅是沿袭<The Economist>一惯幽默作风的产物罢了。<br />去年5月份<The Economist>(May 27th,2006)还专门配发了一焦点文章<Happy 20th birthday to our Big Mac index>来说事,并批评有些人滥用BMI来说明人民币汇价问题。<br />有兴趣的可读读下面的摘录:<br />。。。<br />It is quite natural for average prices to be lower in poorer countries than in developed ones. Although the prices of tradable things should be similar, non-tradable services will be cheaper because of lower wages. PPPs are therefore a more reliable way to convert GDP per head into dollars than market exchange rates, because cheaper prices mean that money goes further. This is also why every poor country has an implied PPP exchange rate that is higher than today's market rate, making them all appear undervalued. Both theory and practice show that as countries get richer and their productivity rises, their real exchange rates appreciate. But this does not mean that a currency needs to rise massively today. Jonathan Anderson, chief economist at UBS in Hong Kong, reckons that the yuan is now only 10-15% below its fair-market value. <br />Even over the long run, adjustment towards PPP need not come from a shift in exchange rates; relative prices can change instead. For example, since 1995, when the yen was overvalued by 100% according to the Big Mac index, <br />the local price of Japanese burgers has dropped by one-third. In the same period, American burgers have become one-third dearer. Similarly, the yuan's future real appreciation could come through faster inflation in China than in <br />the United States.<br />The Big Mac index is most useful for assessing the exchange rates of countries with similar incomes per head. Thus, among emerging markets, the yuan does indeed look undervalued, while the currencies of Brazil, Turkey, Hungary and the Czech Republic look overvalued. Economists would be unwise to exclude Big Macs from their diet, but Super Size servings would equally be a mistake. <br />Copyright © 2006 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved. |
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